Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) Stock Forecast Oct. 14, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 14, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 14, 2026, MTH is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5379 stocks scored that day.
Meritage Homes Corp is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $3.80B. It ranks number 6 by market capitalization among the 17 Operative Builders issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
A per-ticker accuracy statistic for MTH is published only once its sample size is known. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4537 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-06-09 produced a positive net return in 73.7% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.3%, buy ≥ +0.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.6% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-13 signals)
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How MTH ranks among 5379 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Operative Builders peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | MTH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $3.80B | 6/17 |
| P/E Ratio | 11.53x | 6/11 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.75x | 11/15 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.24% | 1/7 |
| EPS | $3.99 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $77.61 | – |
| FCF/Share | $6.36 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | MTH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 6.5% | 9/13 |
| ROA | 4.4% | 9/14 |
| Tax Rate | 22.4% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | MTH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 0.49x | 13/16 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.49x | 13/16 |
| Interest Coverage | 121.3x | 4/10 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | MTH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $438M | 5/16 |
| Free Cash Flow | $415M | 5/15 |
| Capital Spending | -$23M | 7/15 |
Income Statement
| Metric | MTH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $329M | 5/13 |
| SG&A Expense | $618M | 4/11 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | MTH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.89 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 47.4% | 1/7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 65M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $807M | 10.7% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $2.50B | 33.0% of assets |
MTH quarterly financials and insider trading
Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Meritage Homes Corp (Operative Builders): 17 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| MTH Meritage Homes Corp | ▶ | $3.80B |
| DHI Horton D R Inc /De/ | ▶ | $37.89B |
| PHM Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ | ▶ | $20.92B |
| NVR Nvr Inc | ▲ | $15.45B |
| TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | ▶ | $12.18B |
| ECG Everus Construction Group, Inc. | ▶ | $6.04B |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | ▶ | $3.19B |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | ▶ | $2.65B |
| KBH Kb Home | ▲ | $2.59B |
| CCS Century Communities, Inc. | ▶ | $1.58B |
| LGIH Lgi Homes, Inc. | ▲ | $1.05B |
| BZH Beazer Homes Usa Inc | ▼ | $892M |
| DFH Dream Finders Homes, Inc. | ▲ | $846M |
| HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc | ▲ | $620M |
| SDHC Smith Douglas Homes Corp. | ▲ | $496M |
| VNJA Vanjia Corp | ▼ | $165M |
| DREM Dream Homes & Development Corp. | ▼ | $1M |
Where MTH sits on the market map
Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) stock news
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Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) stock forecast?
On Oct. 14, 2026, MTH is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5379 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Meritage Homes Corp stock predictions?
A per-ticker accuracy statistic for MTH is published only once its sample size is known. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4537 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-06-09 produced a positive net return in 73.7% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Meritage Homes Corp forecasts updated?
Meritage Homes Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 14, 2026.
Which companies are Meritage Homes Corp's industry peers?
17 issuers in our coverage, MTH included, share the SEC industry code Operative Builders. The largest are: Horton D R Inc /De/ (DHI), Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ (PHM), Nvr Inc (NVR), Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG), M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.