Alcoa Corp (AA) Stock Forecast Oct. 13, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 13, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Alcoa Corp (AA) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Alcoa Corp outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Alcoa Corp is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $10.95B.
A per-ticker accuracy statistic for AA is published only once its sample size is known. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4537 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-06-09 produced a positive net return in 73.7% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.3%, buy ≥ +0.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.6% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-13 signals)
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How AA ranks among 5379 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Alcoa Corp (AA) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Primary Production of Aluminum peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $10.95B | – |
| P/E Ratio | 8.57x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 1.49x | – |
| Dividend Yield | 0.96% | – |
| EPS | $4.81 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $27.93 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $51.54 | – |
| FCF/Share | $1.33 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 17.3% | – |
| ROA | 7.6% | – |
| Gross Margin | 18.8% | – |
| Net Margin | 9.4% | – |
| EBT Margin | 8.9% | – |
| Tax Rate | -2.5% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.53x | – |
| Quick Ratio | 0.92x | – |
| D/E Ratio | 1.28x | – |
| Financial Leverage | 2.29x | – |
| Working Capital | $2.05B | – |
Cash Flow
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.05B | – |
| Free Cash Flow | $352M | – |
| Capital Spending | -$699M | – |
| OCF Growth YoY | -6.2% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | -39.5% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 2.6% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 5.1% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.81x | – |
| Receivables Turnover | 8.8x | – |
| Inventory Turnover | 4.7x | – |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 2.0x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 41 days | – |
| Days Inventory | 77 days | – |
| Payables Period | 61 days | – |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 57 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $13.60B | – |
| Net Income | $1.28B | – |
| R&D Expense | $21M | – |
| SG&A Expense | $330M | – |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $11.05B | – |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.40 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 8.3% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 264M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $5.88B | 34.9% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.35B | 8.0% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $1.54B | 9.1% of assets |
| Inventory | $2.34B | 13.9% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $9.42B | 55.9% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $1.97B | 11.7% of assets |
AA quarterly financials and insider trading
Alcoa Corp (AA) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Alcoa Corp (Primary Production of Aluminum): 2 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Alcoa Corp (AA) stock news
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Alcoa Corp (AA) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Alcoa Corp (AA) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Alcoa Corp outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Alcoa Corp stock predictions?
A per-ticker accuracy statistic for AA is published only once its sample size is known. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4537 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-06-09 produced a positive net return in 73.7% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Alcoa Corp forecasts updated?
Alcoa Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 13, 2026.
Which companies are Alcoa Corp's industry peers?
2 issuers in our coverage, AA included, share the SEC industry code Primary Production of Aluminum. The largest are: Century Aluminum Co (CENX).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.