Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) Stock Forecast Oct. 14, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 14, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Advance Auto Parts Inc outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Advance Auto Parts Inc is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.53B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 6 Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
A per-ticker accuracy statistic for AAP is published only once its sample size is known. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4537 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-06-09 produced a positive net return in 73.7% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.3%, buy ≥ +0.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.6% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-14 signals)
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How AAP ranks among 4004 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores peers listed below that report each metric.
Reported net income does not reconcile with earnings per share and the share count, so net-income-based ratios are withheld.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.53B | 3/6 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.12x | – |
| EPS | $0.46 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $37.37 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | -0.3% | 4/5 |
| Gross Margin | 43.4% | 3/7 |
| Operating Margin | -0.2% | 3/7 |
| EBT Margin | -0.9% | 3/7 |
| Tax Rate | 172.0% | – |
The effective tax rate is outside the normal band, which points to a large non-recurring tax item in the trailing twelve months; headline net income, net margin and P/E are affected by it.
Financial Health
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.75x | 1/6 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.85x | 1/5 |
| D/E Ratio | 4.33x | – |
| Financial Leverage | 5.33x | – |
| Interest Coverage | 1.0x | 4/7 |
| Working Capital | $3.20B | 1/6 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$58M | 7/7 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Inventory Turnover | 1.6x | 3/5 |
| Days Inventory | 233 days | 3/5 |
| Payables Period | 189 days | 3/5 |
Income Statement
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Income | -$21M | 6/7 |
| SG&A Expense | $4.40B | – |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $6.02B | 3/7 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 60M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $7.47B | 62.2% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $3.12B | 26.0% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $390M | 3.2% of assets |
| Inventory | $3.84B | 32.0% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $9.76B | 81.2% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $1.15B | 9.6% of assets |
AAP quarterly financials and insider trading
Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Advance Auto Parts Inc (Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores): 7 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) stock news
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Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Advance Auto Parts Inc outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Advance Auto Parts Inc stock predictions?
A per-ticker accuracy statistic for AAP is published only once its sample size is known. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4537 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-06-09 produced a positive net return in 73.7% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Advance Auto Parts Inc forecasts updated?
Advance Auto Parts Inc forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 14, 2026.
Which companies are Advance Auto Parts Inc's industry peers?
7 issuers in our coverage, AAP included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores. The largest are: O Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY), Autozone Inc (AZO), Marinemax Inc (HZO), Carparts.Com, Inc. (PRTS), Free Flow Usa, Inc. (FFLO), Applife Digital Solutions Inc (ALDS).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.