First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, FWRG is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $748M. It ranks number 18 by market capitalization among the 40 Retail-Eating Places issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For FWRG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 13.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 14.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How FWRG ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Eating Places peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $748M | 18/40 |
| P/E Ratio | 37.88x | 7/28 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.18x | 24/28 |
| EPS | $0.32 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $10.28 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $21.36 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-0.34 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8% | 16/20 |
| ROA | 1.0% | 20/28 |
| ROIC | 1.7% | 25/34 |
| Operating Margin | 2.1% | 24/38 |
| Net Margin | 1.4% | 21/30 |
| EBT Margin | 0.8% | 27/40 |
| Tax Rate | -77.6% | – |
The effective tax rate is outside the normal band, which points to a large non-recurring tax item in the trailing twelve months; headline net income, net margin and P/E are affected by it.
Financial Health
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.27x | 37/39 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.22x | 29/34 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.87x | 15/29 |
| Financial Leverage | 2.87x | 14/26 |
| Interest Coverage | 1.8x | 24/34 |
| Working Capital | -$130M | 28/39 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $128M | 17/40 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$21M | 32/34 |
| Capital Spending | -$149M | 22/34 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 8.3% | 17/35 |
| FCF/Sales | -1.6% | 28/34 |
| CapEx/Sales | 11.3% | 7/34 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.72x | 25/32 |
| Receivables Turnover | 193.4x | 1/24 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 2.6x | 27/34 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 2 days | 24/24 |
Income Statement
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.32B | 16/35 |
| Operating Income | $28M | 22/38 |
| Net Income | $18M | 18/30 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 62M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 335.6% | 2/21 |
| EPS Growth | 68.4% | 3/23 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $48M | 2.6% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $20M | 1.1% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $7M | 0.4% of assets |
| Inventory | $8M | 0.4% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $1.19B | 65.2% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $168M | 9.2% of assets |
FWRG quarterly financials and insider trading
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (Retail-Eating Places): 41 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | ▶ | $748M |
| MCD Mcdonalds Corp | ▶ | $171.94B |
| YUM Yum Brands Inc | ▼ | $41.07B |
| CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc | ▲ | $37.82B |
| QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | ▼ | $26.12B |
| DRI Darden Restaurants Inc | ▼ | $24.48B |
| YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $15.45B |
| ARMK Aramark | ▼ | $14.57B |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | ▶ | $11.05B |
| EAT Brinker International, Inc | ▶ | $8.53B |
| CAVA Cava Group, Inc. | ▶ | $6.69B |
| CAKE Cheesecake Factory Inc | ▲ | $5.72B |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | ▶ | $3.59B |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc | ▲ | $1.54B |
| BH Biglari Holdings Inc. | ▲ | $1.37B |
| BJRI Bjs Restaurants Inc | ▶ | $1.26B |
| SG Sweetgreen, Inc. | ▲ | $1.19B |
| BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. | ▲ | $852M |
| PZZA Papa Johns International Inc | ▲ | $638M |
| LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $497M |
| KRUS Kura Sushi Usa, Inc. | ▲ | $463M |
| NATH Nathans Famous, Inc. | ▼ | $418M |
| DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc. | ▶ | $405M |
| PTLO Portillo's Inc. | ▲ | $354M |
| PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. | ▲ | $265M |
| JACK Jack In The Box Inc | ▲ | $234M |
| RICK Rci Hospitality Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $196M |
| RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc | ▲ | $167M |
| BDL Flanigans Enterprises Inc | ▶ | $89M |
| NDLS Noodles & Co | ▲ | $83M |
| GENK Gen Restaurant Group, Inc. | ▶ | $56M |
| STKS One Group Hospitality, Inc. | ▲ | $45M |
| LVO Liveone, Inc. | ▲ | $32M |
| CCHH Cch Holdings Ltd | ▶ | $19M |
| ARKR Ark Restaurants Corp | ▲ | $16M |
| GTIM Good Times Restaurants Inc. | ▲ | $15M |
| NROM Noble Romans Inc | ▲ | $13M |
| REBN Reborn Coffee, Inc. | ▼ | $12M |
| BTBD Bt Brands, Inc. | ▲ | $10M |
| BABB Bab, Inc. | ▶ | $6M |
| VSTD Vestand Inc. | ▼ | N/A |
Where FWRG sits on the market map
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) stock news
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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) stock forecast FAQ
What is the First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, FWRG is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. stock predictions?
For FWRG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 13.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 14.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. forecasts updated?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s industry peers?
41 issuers in our coverage, FWRG included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Eating Places. The largest are: Mcdonalds Corp (MCD), Yum Brands Inc (YUM), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR), Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI), Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.