Mcdonalds Corp (MCD) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Mcdonalds Corp (MCD) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, MCD is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
Mcdonalds Corp is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $171.94B. It ranks number 1 by market capitalization among the 40 Retail-Eating Places issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its Net Margin of 32.0% is the highest of the 30 peers that report one. Its Gross Margin of 90.3% is the highest of the 18 peers that report one.
For MCD, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 50.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 29.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How MCD ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Mcdonalds Corp (MCD) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Eating Places peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | MCD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $171.94B | 1/40 |
| P/E Ratio | 19.74x | 16/28 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.04% | 7/16 |
| EPS | $12.31 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $39.15 | – |
| FCF/Share | $10.97 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | MCD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROA | 14.8% | 5/28 |
| ROIC | 22.9% | 5/34 |
| Gross Margin | 90.3% | 1/18 |
| Operating Margin | 46.1% | 1/38 |
| Net Margin | 32.0% | 1/30 |
| EBT Margin | 41.4% | 1/40 |
| Tax Rate | 20.9% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | MCD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.08x | 12/39 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.07x | 9/34 |
| Interest Coverage | 8.2x | 13/34 |
| Working Capital | $327M | 2/39 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | MCD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $11.34B | 1/40 |
| Free Cash Flow | $7.76B | 1/34 |
| Capital Spending | -$3.58B | 34/34 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 15.8% | 13/35 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 12.5% | 11/21 |
| FCF/Sales | 28.0% | 1/34 |
| CapEx/Sales | 12.9% | 4/34 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | MCD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.46x | 31/32 |
| Inventory Turnover | 46.1x | 5/12 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 1.0x | 34/34 |
| Days Inventory | 8 days | 8/12 |
| Payables Period | 152 days | 2/15 |
Income Statement
| Metric | MCD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $27.70B | 1/35 |
| Operating Income | $12.80B | 1/38 |
| Net Income | $8.90B | 1/30 |
| SG&A Expense | $3.23B | 1/10 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $2.68B | 3/17 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | MCD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $7.38 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 60.0% | 9/15 |
| Shares Outstanding | 708M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 3.1% | 13/21 |
| EPS Growth | 5.5% | 11/23 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $4.34B | |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $822M | |
| Inventory | $58M | |
| Total Liabilities | $60.94B | |
| Short-term Debt | $2.90B |
MCD quarterly financials and insider trading
Mcdonalds Corp (MCD) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Mcdonalds Corp (Retail-Eating Places): 41 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| MCD Mcdonalds Corp | ▶ | $171.94B |
| YUM Yum Brands Inc | ▼ | $41.07B |
| CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc | ▲ | $37.82B |
| QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | ▼ | $26.12B |
| DRI Darden Restaurants Inc | ▼ | $24.48B |
| YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $15.45B |
| ARMK Aramark | ▼ | $14.57B |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | ▶ | $11.05B |
| EAT Brinker International, Inc | ▶ | $8.53B |
| CAVA Cava Group, Inc. | ▶ | $6.69B |
| CAKE Cheesecake Factory Inc | ▲ | $5.72B |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | ▶ | $3.59B |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc | ▲ | $1.54B |
| BH Biglari Holdings Inc. | ▲ | $1.37B |
| BJRI Bjs Restaurants Inc | ▶ | $1.26B |
| SG Sweetgreen, Inc. | ▲ | $1.19B |
| BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. | ▲ | $852M |
| FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | ▶ | $748M |
| PZZA Papa Johns International Inc | ▲ | $638M |
| LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $497M |
| KRUS Kura Sushi Usa, Inc. | ▲ | $463M |
| NATH Nathans Famous, Inc. | ▼ | $418M |
| DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc. | ▶ | $405M |
| PTLO Portillo's Inc. | ▲ | $354M |
| PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. | ▲ | $265M |
| JACK Jack In The Box Inc | ▲ | $234M |
| RICK Rci Hospitality Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $196M |
| RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc | ▲ | $167M |
| BDL Flanigans Enterprises Inc | ▶ | $89M |
| NDLS Noodles & Co | ▲ | $83M |
| GENK Gen Restaurant Group, Inc. | ▶ | $56M |
| STKS One Group Hospitality, Inc. | ▲ | $45M |
| LVO Liveone, Inc. | ▲ | $32M |
| CCHH Cch Holdings Ltd | ▶ | $19M |
| ARKR Ark Restaurants Corp | ▲ | $16M |
| GTIM Good Times Restaurants Inc. | ▲ | $15M |
| NROM Noble Romans Inc | ▲ | $13M |
| REBN Reborn Coffee, Inc. | ▼ | $12M |
| BTBD Bt Brands, Inc. | ▲ | $10M |
| BABB Bab, Inc. | ▶ | $6M |
| VSTD Vestand Inc. | ▼ | N/A |
Where MCD sits on the market map
Mcdonalds Corp (MCD) stock news
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Mcdonalds Corp (MCD) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Mcdonalds Corp (MCD) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, MCD is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Mcdonalds Corp stock predictions?
For MCD, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 50.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 29.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Mcdonalds Corp forecasts updated?
Mcdonalds Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Mcdonalds Corp's industry peers?
41 issuers in our coverage, MCD included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Eating Places. The largest are: Yum Brands Inc (YUM), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR), Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI), Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC), Aramark (ARMK).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.