Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Stock Forecast Nov. 4, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 4, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $3.21B. It ranks number 60 by market capitalization among the 60 Services-Prepackaged Software issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For ALRM, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 9.0%, measured on 358 forecast dates between 2022-08-17 and 2026-08-06 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 5.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-17 and 2026-10-05. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.9%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-30 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, ALRM included.
ALRM price chart and AI forecast
How ALRM ranks among 4891 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Services-Prepackaged Software peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $3.21B | 60/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 28.34x | 22/40 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.72x | 44/51 |
| EPS | $2.31 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $17.61 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $21.61 | – |
| FCF/Share | $3.82 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 13.6% | 27/46 |
| ROA | 7.1% | 24/48 |
| ROIC | 9.1% | 24/54 |
| Gross Margin | 65.8% | 45/56 |
| Operating Margin | 12.8% | 27/59 |
| Net Margin | 11.1% | 30/50 |
| EBT Margin | 14.7% | 26/59 |
| Tax Rate | 24.7% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 4.96x | 4/57 |
| Quick Ratio | 4.38x | 1/9 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.86x | 25/52 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.92x | 22/51 |
| Interest Coverage | 3.1x | 32/46 |
| Working Capital | $640M | 27/57 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $199M | 53/59 |
| Free Cash Flow | $188M | 44/50 |
| Capital Spending | -$11M | 16/50 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 10.4% | 49/52 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 14.0% | 34/43 |
| FCF/Sales | 17.7% | 38/50 |
| CapEx/Sales | 1.1% | 23/50 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.64x | 16/50 |
| Receivables Turnover | 6.6x | 23/50 |
| Inventory Turnover | 3.8x | 8/8 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 15.6x | 33/49 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 56 days | 28/50 |
| Days Inventory | 95 days | 1/8 |
| Payables Period | 30 days | 19/53 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 121 days | 1/6 |
Income Statement
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.06B | 50/53 |
| Operating Income | $136M | 34/59 |
| Net Income | $118M | 34/50 |
| R&D Expense | $276M | 46/59 |
| SG&A Expense | $311M | 57/58 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $363M | 40/57 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 49M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 230.0% | 5/32 |
| EPS Growth | 0.4% | 32/37 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $801M | 48.4% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $479M | 28.9% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $162M | 9.8% of assets |
| Inventory | $94M | 5.7% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $747M | 45.1% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $132M | 7.9% of assets |
ALRM quarterly financials and insider trading
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (Services-Prepackaged Software): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. | $3.21B | |
| MSFT Microsoft Corp | $3.77T | |
| PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. | $428.53B | |
| ORCL Oracle Corp | $360.49B | |
| SAP Sap Se | $287.00B | |
| CRWD Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc. | $250.54B | |
| SHOP Shopify Inc. | $201.00B | |
| CRM Salesforce, Inc. | $186.15B | |
| NET Cloudflare, Inc. | $98.68B | |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | $95.80B | |
| SNPS Synopsys Inc | $89.32B | |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems Inc | $88.83B | |
| DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $84.48B | |
| NTES Netease, Inc. | $73.99B | |
| ADSK Autodesk, Inc. | $52.73B | |
| VEEV Veeva Systems Inc | $49.71B | |
| TEAM Atlassian Corp | $47.36B | |
| XYZ Block, Inc. | $45.79B | |
| OKTA Okta, Inc. | $36.40B | |
| TTWO Take Two Interactive Software Inc | $35.92B | |
| TWLO Twilio Inc | $31.88B | |
| RBLX Roblox Corp | $30.71B | |
| CRWV Coreweave, Inc. | $29.64B | |
| MDB Mongodb, Inc. | $26.62B | |
| RBRK Rubrik, Inc. | $23.77B | |
| PTC Ptc Inc. | $21.22B | |
| SSNC Ss&C Technologies Holdings Inc | $19.14B | |
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | $17.89B | |
| NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | $17.43B | |
| TYL Tyler Technologies Inc | $16.15B | |
| CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd | $16.06B | |
| MANH Manhattan Associates Inc | $14.76B | |
| DT Dynatrace, Inc. | $13.59B | |
| GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. | $13.32B | |
| BSY Bentley Systems Inc | $12.36B | |
| PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | $11.99B | |
| FIG Figma, Inc. | $11.83B | |
| HUBS Hubspot Inc | $11.64B | |
| SAIL Sailpoint, Inc. | $10.96B | |
| FROG Jfrog Ltd | $10.49B | |
| ESTC Elastic N.V. | $10.21B | |
| PCOR Procore Technologies, Inc. | $9.33B | |
| PCTY Paylocity Holding Corp | $9.24B | |
| NTSK Netskope Inc | $8.99B | |
| GTLB Gitlab Inc. | $8.68B | |
| DBX Dropbox, Inc. | $8.18B | |
| S Sentinelone, Inc. | $8.06B | |
| APPF Appfolio Inc | $7.93B | |
| TTAN Servicetitan, Inc. | $7.91B | |
| DSGX Descartes Systems Group Inc | $7.84B | |
| ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp. | $7.51B | |
| GLBE Global-E Online Ltd. | $7.27B | |
| QLYS Qualys, Inc. | $7.18B | |
| PATH Uipath, Inc. | $6.95B | |
| NICE Nice Ltd. | $6.79B | |
| NAVN Navan, Inc. | $6.61B | |
| CVLT Commvault Systems Inc | $6.59B | |
| DUOL Duolingo, Inc. | $6.16B | |
| BOX Box Inc | $5.90B | |
| KVYO Klaviyo, Inc. | $5.73B |
Where ALRM sits on the market map
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) stock news
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Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) stock forecast?
Our AI scores Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. stock predictions?
For ALRM, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 9.0%, measured on 358 forecast dates between 2022-08-17 and 2026-08-06 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 5.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-17 and 2026-10-05. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. forecasts updated?
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 4, 2026.
Which companies are Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, ALRM included, share the SEC industry code Services-Prepackaged Software. The largest are: Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), Oracle Corp (ORCL), Sap Se (SAP), Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD), Shopify Inc. (SHOP).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.