Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) Stock Forecast Oct. 15, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 15, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 15, 2026, ESRT is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5111 stocks scored that day.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $808M. It ranks number 60 by market capitalization among the 60 Real Estate Investment Trusts issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For ESRT, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 48.0%, measured on 358 forecast dates between 2022-07-28 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 19.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-28 and 2026-09-15. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.3%, buy ≥ +0.4%, sell < -0.8%, strong sell < -1.5% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-15 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, ESRT included.
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How ESRT ranks among 5111 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Real Estate Investment Trusts peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | ESRT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $808M | 60/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 79.67x | 6/50 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.78x | 54/57 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.97% | 48/54 |
| EPS | $0.06 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $6.14 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $4.64 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | ESRT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Margin | -4.4% | 31/31 |
| EBT Margin | 1.3% | 44/46 |
| Tax Rate | 8.6% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | ESRT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 2.39x | 11/57 |
| Financial Leverage | 4.11x | 10/57 |
| Interest Coverage | -5.1x | 48/48 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | ESRT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $228M | 59/60 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -24.1% | 57/59 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | ESRT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.18x | 17/56 |
| Receivables Turnover | 36.9x | 10/40 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 10 days | 31/40 |
Income Statement
| Metric | ESRT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $784M | 48/56 |
| Operating Income | -$35M | 32/32 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | ESRT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.14 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 233.3% | 8/49 |
| Shares Outstanding | 169M | – |
| EPS Growth | -79.3% | 33/34 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $86M | 2.4% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $21M | 0.6% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $2.48B | 70.6% of assets |
ESRT quarterly financials and insider trading
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (Real Estate Investment Trusts): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| ESRT Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | ▶ | $808M |
| WELL Welltower Inc. | ▶ | $163.89B |
| PLD Prologis, Inc. | ▲ | $121.87B |
| EQIX Equinix Inc | ▼ | $98.27B |
| AMT American Tower Corp /Ma/ | ▼ | $83.59B |
| SPG Simon Property Group Inc. | ▶ | $64.29B |
| DLR Digital Realty Trust, Inc. | ▼ | $59.11B |
| O Realty Income Corp | ▼ | $52.20B |
| PSA Public Storage | ▼ | $50.71B |
| VTR Ventas, Inc. | ▶ | $43.25B |
| CCI Crown Castle Inc. | ▲ | $33.77B |
| IRM Iron Mountain Inc | ▼ | $33.00B |
| EXR Extra Space Storage Inc. | ▼ | $29.52B |
| VICI Vici Properties Inc. | ▶ | $25.26B |
| VMRK Vivmark Residential | ▼ | $22.80B |
| SBAC Sba Communications Corp | ▶ | $19.17B |
| ESS Essex Property Trust, Inc. | ▼ | $17.31B |
| UDR Udr, Inc. | ▼ | $17.31B |
| HST Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | ▼ | $15.93B |
| KIM Kimco Realty Corp | ▼ | $15.02B |
| LAMR Lamar Advertising Co/New | ▼ | $14.74B |
| WPC W. P. Carey Inc. | ▶ | $14.48B |
| SUI Sun Communities Inc | ▼ | $14.08B |
| NLY Annaly Capital Management Inc | ▼ | $13.69B |
| OHI Omega Healthcare Investors Inc | ▼ | $13.66B |
| WY Weyerhaeuser Co | ▲ | $13.62B |
| MAA Mid America Apartment Communities Inc. | ▼ | $13.53B |
| REG Regency Centers Corp | ▼ | $13.42B |
| AHR American Healthcare Reit, Inc. | ▼ | $12.22B |
| ELS Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc | ▼ | $11.56B |
| GLPI Gaming & Leisure Properties, Inc. | ▼ | $11.42B |
| AMH American Homes 4 Rent | ▼ | $11.02B |
| EGP Eastgroup Properties Inc | ▼ | $10.41B |
| BXP Bxp, Inc. | ▼ | $9.21B |
| FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust | ▼ | $9.06B |
| CUBE Cubesmart | ▼ | $8.60B |
| CTRE Caretrust Reit, Inc. | ▼ | $8.58B |
| REXR Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | ▲ | $8.36B |
| BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. | ▼ | $8.32B |
| NNN Nnn Reit, Inc. | ▼ | $7.83B |
| FR First Industrial Realty Trust Inc | ▼ | $7.80B |
| RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | ▶ | $7.75B |
| LINE Lineage, Inc. | ▼ | $7.69B |
| ADC Agree Realty Corp | ▼ | $7.54B |
| ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | ▲ | $7.23B |
| STAG Stag Industrial, Inc. | ▶ | $7.00B |
| MAC Macerich Co | ▶ | $6.29B |
| VNO Vornado Realty Trust | ▶ | $6.04B |
| HR Healthcare Realty Trust Inc | ▼ | $5.91B |
| RYN Rayonier Inc | ▲ | $5.61B |
| EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | ▼ | $5.55B |
| OUT Outfront Media Inc. | ▼ | $5.23B |
| KRG Kite Realty Group Trust | ▼ | $4.94B |
| SBRA Sabra Health Care Reit, Inc. | ▶ | $4.90B |
| PECO Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. | ▼ | $4.86B |
| RITM Rithm Capital Corp. | ▶ | $4.66B |
| STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | ▶ | $4.58B |
| CUZ Cousins Properties Inc | ▶ | $4.42B |
| EPR Epr Properties | ▼ | $4.18B |
| HHH Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $4.08B |
Where ESRT sits on the market map
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) stock news
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Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) stock forecast?
On Oct. 15, 2026, ESRT is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5111 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. stock predictions?
For ESRT, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 48.0%, measured on 358 forecast dates between 2022-07-28 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 19.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-28 and 2026-09-15. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. forecasts updated?
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 15, 2026.
Which companies are Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, ESRT included, share the SEC industry code Real Estate Investment Trusts. The largest are: Welltower Inc. (WELL), Prologis, Inc. (PLD), Equinix Inc (EQIX), American Tower Corp /Ma/ (AMT), Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG), Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.