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Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16

Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026

Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq

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Rating · 90D ▲ Bullish Exact rating locked
90-day forecast Sign up free to reveal
30-day forecast Alpha
Rank in coverage Top 35% of 5121 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D 6.0% Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap $263M small-cap · #60 of 60 peers
Summary

Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) stock forecast summary

Our AI ranks Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.

Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $263M. It ranks number 60 by market capitalization among the 60 National Commercial Banks issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.

For HWBK, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 6.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 21.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report

Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.4%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.5% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-15 signals)

A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, HWBK included.

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Price

HWBK price chart and AI forecast

HWBK
Cross-section · 2026-10-15

How HWBK ranks among 5121 stocks

90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).

Fundamentals · 2026-06-30

Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) fundamentals

Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the National Commercial Banks peers listed below that report each metric.

Valuation & Market

MetricHWBKIndustry medianRank
Market Cap $263M $2.68B 60/60
P/E Ratio 10.56x 11.81x 46/58
P/B Ratio 1.44x 1.24x 18/59
Dividend Yield 2.13% 2.92% 40/52
EPS $3.61 – –
Book Value/Share $26.49 – –
Revenue/Share $12.10 – –
FCF/Share $4.05 – –

Profitability & Margins

MetricHWBKIndustry medianRank
ROE 13.9% 10.7% 10/55
ROA 1.4% 1.2% 11/49
Net Margin 30.4% 29.8% 23/54
EBT Margin 37.2% 37.2% 30/59
Tax Rate 18.4% – –

Financial Health

MetricHWBKIndustry medianRank
D/E Ratio 8.70x 7.94x 20/60
Financial Leverage 9.70x 8.97x 18/52

Cash Flow

MetricHWBKIndustry medianRank
Operating Cash Flow $34M $231M 56/60
Free Cash Flow $28M $187M 42/43
Capital Spending -$6M -$15M 11/43
OCF Growth YoY 48.9% 33.6% 21/54
FCF Growth YoY 41.7% 37.2% 19/41
FCF/Sales 33.4% 29.8% 19/43
CapEx/Sales 6.8% 2.6% 8/43

Operational Efficiency

MetricHWBKIndustry medianRank
Asset Turnover 0.05x 0.04x 6/49
Fixed Assets Turnover 2.7x 4.5x 40/52

Income Statement

MetricHWBKIndustry medianRank
Total Revenue $84M $694M 56/57
Net Income $25M $199M 54/55

Dividend & Shareholder Information

MetricHWBKIndustry medianRank
Dividends Per Share $0.81 – –
Payout Ratio 22.4% 35.4% 44/51
Shares Outstanding 7M – –
Net Income Growth 22.9% 18.4% 21/53
EPS Growth 27.6% 18.8% 22/56

Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)

Cash & Short-term Investments$33M1.8% of assets
Total Liabilities$1.59B89.7% of assets
Quarterly Financial Reports

HWBK quarterly financials and insider trading

Industry Peers · National Commercial Banks

Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) industry peers

Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (National Commercial Banks): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.

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Company 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) Market Cap P/E Ratio P/B Ratio
HWBK Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. ▲ $263M 10.6x 1.4x
JPM Jpmorgan Chase & Co ▶ $891.90B 14.4x 2.4x
BAC Bank Of America Corp /De/ ▲ $361.53B 9.9x 1.2x
WFC Wells Fargo & Company/Mn ▶ $250.24B 12.1x 1.4x
C Citigroup Inc ▲ $220.46B 17.6x 1.0x
UBS Ubs Group Ag ▼ $159.66B 9.7x –
MFG Mizuho Financial Group Inc ▶ $127.39B 2.2x 1.9x
COF Capital One Financial Corp ▼ $122.00B 11.5x 1.1x
USB Us Bancorp \De\ ▶ $89.42B 11.5x 1.3x
PNC Pnc Financial Services Group, Inc. ▶ $85.75B 11.8x 1.3x
TFC Truist Financial Corp ▼ $56.89B 8.9x 0.9x
HBAN Huntington Bancshares Inc /Md/ ▲ $31.01B 11.8x 1.0x
RF Regions Financial Corp ▲ $23.27B 11.6x 1.2x
KEY Keycorp /New/ ▲ $21.28B 12.4x 1.2x
FHN First Horizon Corp ▶ $10.83B 11.7x 1.2x
UMBF Umb Financial Corp ▼ $10.01B 10.8x 1.3x
ONB Old National Bancorp /In/ ▶ $9.77B 12.9x 1.2x
CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. ▼ $9.58B 14.6x 2.1x
ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association /Ut/ ▶ $9.20B 8.0x 1.2x
BOKF Bok Financial Corp ▶ $7.60B 11.8x 1.3x
VLY Valley National Bancorp ▲ $7.05B 11.8x 0.9x
FNB Fnb Corp/Pa/ ▶ $6.06B 10.6x 0.9x
FULT Fulton Financial Corp ▶ $4.27B 10.8x 1.2x
WSFS Wsfs Financial Corp ▶ $3.90B 12.8x 1.5x
BANF Bancfirst Corp /Ok/ ▶ $3.63B 14.6x 1.9x
WSBC Wesbanco Inc ▶ $3.55B 14.4x 0.9x
NIC Nicolet Bankshares Inc ▼ $3.45B 20.6x 1.5x
FFBC First Financial Bancorp /Oh/ ▼ $3.30B 11.8x 1.1x
SFNC Simmons First National Corp ▶ $3.22B – 0.9x
PRK Park National Corp /Oh/ ▶ $3.22B 16.0x 1.9x
BANC Banc Of California, Inc. ▲ $2.72B – 0.8x
NBTB Nbt Bancorp Inc ▶ $2.63B 13.0x 1.7x
TRMK Trustmark Corp ▶ $2.61B 11.6x 1.2x
FRME First Merchants Corp ▶ $2.29B 11.7x 0.9x
NWBI Northwest Bancshares, Inc. ▶ $2.18B 14.6x 1.1x
WAFD Wafd Inc ▲ $2.18B 8.0x 0.7x
FCF First Commonwealth Financial Corp /Pa/ ▶ $2.04B 12.7x 1.3x
TBBK Bancorp, Inc. ▶ $2.00B 7.5x 2.8x
CHCO City Holding Co ▶ $1.98B 15.4x 2.5x
FSUN Firstsun Capital Bancorp ▶ $1.77B 18.6x 1.5x
DCOM Dime Commercial Bancshares, Inc. /Ny/ ▲ $1.71B 15.7x 1.1x
HOPE Hope Bancorp Inc ▶ $1.71B 13.8x 0.8x
NBHC National Bank Holdings Corp ▶ $1.68B 14.8x 1.0x
BFC Bank First Corp ▼ $1.63B 19.1x 2.0x
OCFC Oceanfirst Financial Corp ▶ $1.54B 18.8x 0.9x
CASH Pathward Financial, Inc. ▶ $1.50B 8.9x 1.8x
BHRB Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. ▼ $1.41B 11.2x 1.2x
WABC Westamerica Bancorporation ▼ $1.41B 13.4x 1.7x
AMTB Amerant Bancorp Inc. ▲ $1.14B 23.4x 1.2x
FMCB Farmers & Merchants Bancorp ▶ $993M 10.3x 1.5x
CAC Camden National Corp ▶ $944M 9.9x 1.3x
HAFC Hanmi Financial Corp ▶ $917M 11.1x 1.1x
SMBK Smartfinancial Inc. ▶ $858M 15.5x 1.5x
FISI Financial Institutions Inc ▶ $774M 10.2x 1.4x
ALRS Alerus Financial Corp ▲ $765M 43.3x 1.3x
SHBI Shore Bancshares Inc ▶ $752M 12.0x 1.2x
BCAL California Bancorp \ Ca ▶ $698M 11.2x 1.2x
PFIS Peoples Financial Services Corp. ▲ $681M 12.0x 1.3x
CARE Carter Bankshares, Inc. ▶ $672M 4.9x 1.3x
CBNK Capital Bancorp Inc ▲ $642M 11.3x 1.5x

Where HWBK sits on the market map

Finance · National Commercial Banks
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News

Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) stock news

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FAQ

Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) stock forecast FAQ

What is the Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) stock forecast?

Our AI ranks Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.

How accurate are Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. stock predictions?

For HWBK, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 6.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 21.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report

How often are Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. forecasts updated?

Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.

Which companies are Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc.'s industry peers?

60 issuers in our coverage, HWBK included, share the SEC industry code National Commercial Banks. The largest are: Jpmorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Bank Of America Corp /De/ (BAC), Wells Fargo & Company/Mn (WFC), Citigroup Inc (C), Ubs Group Ag (UBS), Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MFG).

This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.