1st Source Corp (SRCE) Stock Forecast Nov. 3, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 3, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
1st Source Corp (SRCE) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores 1st Source Corp every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
1st Source Corp is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.15B. It ranks number 52 by market capitalization among the 60 State Commercial Banks issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For SRCE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -20.0%, measured on 358 forecast dates between 2022-08-16 and 2026-08-05 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -9.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-16 and 2026-10-02. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.9%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-30 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, SRCE included.
SRCE price chart and AI forecast
How SRCE ranks among 4891 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
1st Source Corp (SRCE) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the State Commercial Banks peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.15B | 52/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 12.26x | 33/58 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.63x | 12/57 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.96% | 38/51 |
| EPS | $7.28 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $54.79 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $18.77 | – |
| FCF/Share | $9.55 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 13.5% | 9/53 |
| ROA | 1.9% | 4/49 |
| Net Margin | 39.4% | 10/54 |
| EBT Margin | 51.0% | 11/57 |
| Tax Rate | 22.8% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 6.06x | 49/59 |
| Financial Leverage | 7.08x | 42/53 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $236M | 41/58 |
| Free Cash Flow | $230M | 30/45 |
| Capital Spending | -$6M | 6/45 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 17.5% | 30/53 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 23.3% | 21/40 |
| FCF/Sales | 50.9% | 9/44 |
| CapEx/Sales | 1.4% | 30/44 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.05x | 6/51 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 7.2x | 22/55 |
Income Statement
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $452M | 48/57 |
| Net Income | $178M | 41/54 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.75 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 24.0% | 40/51 |
| Shares Outstanding | 24M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 19.9% | 29/53 |
| EPS Growth | 21.1% | 26/56 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $105M | 1.1% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $7.99B | 85.8% of assets |
SRCE quarterly financials and insider trading
1st Source Corp (SRCE) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as 1st Source Corp (State Commercial Banks): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| SRCE 1st Source Corp | $2.15B | |
| BNS Bank Of Nova Scotia | $116.29B | |
| DB Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft | $64.87B | |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $49.85B | |
| STT State Street Corp | $46.51B | |
| MTB M&T Bank Corp | $32.41B | |
| NTRS Northern Trust Corp | $31.22B | |
| BBD Bank Bradesco | $27.87B | |
| CFG Citizens Financial Group Inc/Ri | $27.35B | |
| FCNCA First Citizens Bancshares Inc /De/ | $26.57B | |
| EWBC East West Bancorp Inc | $17.92B | |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | $11.75B | |
| WTFC Wintrust Financial Corp | $10.28B | |
| SSB Southstate Bank Corp | $10.20B | |
| BPOP Popular, Inc. | $10.14B | |
| PB Prosperity Bancshares Inc | $8.88B | |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | $8.84B | |
| CBC Central Bancompany, Inc. | $8.83B | |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | $8.58B | |
| CBSH Commerce Bancshares Inc /Mo/ | $8.00B | |
| UBSI United Bankshares Inc/Wv | $6.57B | |
| GBCI Glacier Bancorp, Inc. | $6.51B | |
| HOMB Home Bancshares Inc | $6.09B | |
| HWC Hancock Whitney Corp | $5.89B | |
| ASB Associated Banc-Corp | $5.88B | |
| ABCB Ameris Bancorp | $5.65B | |
| AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp | $5.61B | |
| UCB United Community Banks Inc | $4.54B | |
| FFIN First Financial Bankshares Inc | $4.51B | |
| SFBS Servisfirst Bancshares, Inc. | $4.43B | |
| TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares Inc/Tx | $4.42B | |
| CATY Cathay General Bancorp | $4.37B | |
| IBOC International Bancshares Corp | $4.16B | |
| CVBF Cvb Financial Corp | $4.07B | |
| FBP First Bancorp /Pr/ | $4.03B | |
| INDB Independent Bank Corp | $3.92B | |
| RNST Renasant Corp | $3.71B | |
| FIBK First Interstate Bancsystem Inc | $3.69B | |
| MCHB Mechanics Bancorp | $3.33B | |
| SBCF Seacoast Banking Corp Of Florida | $3.29B | |
| FHB First Hawaiian, Inc. | $3.13B | |
| CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. | $2.91B | |
| BOH Bank Of Hawaii Corp | $2.81B | |
| FBK Fb Financial Corp | $2.75B | |
| FBNC First Bancorp /Nc/ | $2.70B | |
| SYBT Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. | $2.44B | |
| BANR Banner Corp | $2.43B | |
| MBIN Merchants Bancorp | $2.42B | |
| BUSE First Busey Corp /Nv/ | $2.38B | |
| EFSC Enterprise Financial Services Corp | $2.28B | |
| HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc. | $2.17B | |
| OFG Ofg Bancorp | $2.15B | |
| GABC German American Bancorp, Inc. | $1.89B | |
| STBA S&T Bancorp Inc | $1.83B | |
| RBCAA Republic Bancorp Inc /Ky/ | $1.81B | |
| CNOB Connectone Bancorp, Inc. | $1.78B | |
| BY Byline Bancorp, Inc. | $1.74B | |
| TCBK Trico Bancshares / | $1.71B | |
| QCRH Qcr Holdings Inc | $1.69B | |
| OBK Origin Bancorp, Inc. | $1.67B |
Where SRCE sits on the market map
1st Source Corp (SRCE) stock news
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1st Source Corp (SRCE) stock forecast FAQ
What is the 1st Source Corp (SRCE) stock forecast?
Our AI scores 1st Source Corp every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are 1st Source Corp stock predictions?
For SRCE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -20.0%, measured on 358 forecast dates between 2022-08-16 and 2026-08-05 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -9.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-16 and 2026-10-02. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are 1st Source Corp forecasts updated?
1st Source Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 3, 2026.
Which companies are 1st Source Corp's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, SRCE included, share the SEC industry code State Commercial Banks. The largest are: Bank Of Nova Scotia (BNS), Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), State Street Corp (STT), M&T Bank Corp (MTB), Northern Trust Corp (NTRS).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.